Republicans get good news in Pennsylvania’s special election

(CNN)It’s just one election, but the first congressional special of 2019 suggests a better national environment for Republicans than the one they faced in 2017 and 2018. The question is whether the Pennsylvania 12 result is a fluke. It could be, but about 30 special legislative elections since the 2018 midterms suggest that something may very well have changed since last year. According to data collected by Daily Kos Elections, Democrats have only been outperforming Clinton’s margin by about 3 points heading into Tuesday night in these state legislative specials. Even if we allocate third party votes proportionally to account for a number of races with strong third-party showings, Democrats have only been outperforming the 2016 baseline by about 6 …